The Worst Collapse Ever?
Duke gave away their Final Four game against Houston in stunning fashion. Where does it rank all-time among tournament collapses?
Last night’s Final Four game between Houston and Duke gave us a surprising thriller as the Blue Devils blew a 14-point lead over the final eight minutes, including an 11-1 run by Houston over the final 1:14. I’m still shocked about how it played out.
Before we break down where this game stands in the history of this crazy tournament, let’s just touch on a few pieces of important context.
Heading into the game I was concerned about Duke’s relative lack of experience. Their best player, Cooper Flagg, is an 18-year-old who should be enjoying his senior year of high school, like his twin brother currently is. Their next best players, Kon Kneupel and Khaman Maluach are also teenagers in their freshman year. Compare that to Houston’s starting five which consists of two juniors and three fifth-year seniors. Duke was preparing to play a team of grown ass men as someone who had Duke winning it all in my bracket, I was concerned how that disparity in experience might reveal itself.
Houston isn’t just an experienced team. They’re an experienced team coached by Kelvin whose 36-year career as a head coach has been marked by teams that play stifling defense and fight for rebounds like their next meal depends on it. I didn’t think it was an exaggeration to suggest that Flagg, Kneupel, and Maluach would be playing the toughest, scrappiest, most physical team they had ever played in their lives.
Within minutes, that concern evaporated. Halfway through the first half, Duke had an 18-9 lead and looked to be a few possessions from completely putting the game away. Eventually, Houston found their offensive rhythm, but they were unable to cut into Duke’s lead in a meaningful way. Houston drained three consecutive three-pointers to close out the first half, then drained their first two long-range attempts of the second half and still found themselves trailing by double digits after Flagg and Kneupel answered the Cougars’ run with back-to-back treys at the other end.
At the 10:31 mark, Flagg hit another jumper to extend the lead to 58-45 and this game felt all but over. Little did we know that Duke would only hit one more shot from the field the rest of the game.
For those who may not have seen the game, the final minute and change was decided by a handful of key moments.
With 1:14 to play, and Houston trailing 67-61, Sampson made the somewhat questionable decision not to foul intentionally but to trust his defense to get a key stop. That trust in his defense was rewarded as the possession ended with Houston contesting a Kneupel layup and grabbing the rebound with 47 seconds to play.
With 0:33 to play, Emanuel Sharp drilled a three-pointer to cut the deficit to 67-64. It was the first time in the second half that Houston had managed to cut the deficit to one possession.
After a Houston timeout, Duke was unable to inbound the ball from under the basket and was forced to burn their final timeout. Having had two consecutive timeouts to figure out a proper inbounds play, Duke still managed to turn it over. Mylik Wilson corralled the ball for Houston, immediately retreated to the three-point line and fired. Wilson’s shot missed the mark, but Joseph Tugler immediately and powerfully grabbed the errant shot and slammed it home to cut the deficit to 67-66 with 0:25 to play.
Houston intentionally fouled Duke guard Tyrese Proctor, who was an 87% free throw shooter as a freshman, but somehow just a 68% shooter as a junior. Proctor missed the front end of a one-and-one and Cooper Flagg was called for a foul on the rebound.
The call on Flagg was a lame call and diehard Duke fans will point to it as the reason they lost. It was undoubtedly a bad call, but was not the reason Duke lost this game. Duke lost for a myriad of reasons and one of those reasons was J’Wan Roberts, a fifth year who has made just 59% of his free throws during his 172-game career at Houston, who calmly walked to the line and sunk both shots to give Houston a 68-67 lead.
After everything that transpired, Duke still had 17 seconds to draw up a winning play, and Cooper Flagg ended up with a decent look at a fadeaway from the middle of the key (with the refs conveniently looking away as he hooked the defender). Flagg’s jumper fell short, Houston grabbed the rebound, and two fan bases simultaneously had a difficult time processing everything they had just witnessed.
There’s no way of sugarcoating it. Duke had a spot in the national championship firmly in their grasp and let it slip through their fingers. It immediately took its place as one of the great March Madness collapses of all time (even though it took place in early April). It is the worst collapse in tournament history? I’m glad you asked. Let’s do a quick summary of the biggest comebacks/collapses in my lifetime. To organize our thoughts, I’ve sorted these moments by round because a collapse hurts worse the later it takes place in the tournament.
First Four:
In 2012, BYU came back from 25 points down to beat Iona. It’s the biggest comeback in tournament history, but it also happened in the First Four so it’s a fun trivia question more than anything else. Three years later the Cougars blew a 17-point lead to Ole Miss in the First Four. Put BYU in the First Four every year!
Round of 64:
Apparently, last year Dayton came back from down 17 to beat Nevada. I have no memory of it. If a game happened a year ago and I have no memory of it, it can’t be considered the greatest comeback or collapse of all time.
Round of 32:
Every epic collapse requires some sort of comeback by the team that won and every epic comeback requires some sort of collapse by the team that lost. But some games look more like one than the other. In 2016, Northern Iowa somehow managed to blow a 10-point lead against Texas A&M in the final 30 seconds. That felt much more like a collapse than a comeback and watching the last 30 seconds on YouTube feels like watching a horror movie. Yet that same Northern Iowa team upset Texas in the previous round on a half-court buzzer beater so they wer already living on borrowed time.
In 2018, Nevada came back from down 22 against Cincinnati. This game felt more like a comeback than a collapse because Nevada was led by twin brothers Caleb Martin and Cody Martin and it’s just always fun to root for twin brothers. I think the average March Madness fan was horrified by what happened in the Northern Iowa game and delighted by what happened in this game.
Sweet 16:
Once you move beyond the first weekend, you’re moving into the all-timers. In 2006, UCLA came back from down 17 to beat Gonzaga. That Gonzaga team was led by Adam Morrison, the best player in the country at the time and the best player in Gonzaga history, and it led to the “crying Morrison” meme before memes were even a thing. Like the Duke-Houston game, there was a critical turnover in the backcourt in the final minute and pretty much anytime that happens, it’s going to be remembered more as a collapse than a comeback. This is absolutely on the short list of the worst collapses of all time.
In 2010, Ohio State blew a 20-point first half lead against Tennessee. That Ohio State team was loaded, and this was the best moment of the Bruce Pearl era in Knoxville, but the Vols lost in the next round so this game has been relegated to a footnote.
Earlier in this tournament, Texas Tech came back from down 16 to beat Arkansas in overtime. I don’t think this game rises to the level of some other games on this list because Arkansas was a 10-seed and not exactly a national title contender, but the one hilarious thing I will remember from this game was the graphic which came on the screen saying “John Calipari is 35-0 in the NCAA Tournament when leading at halftime by 6+ points.” Anytime you see a graphic like that, you know something crazy is about to unfold. I’m guessing whoever put that graphic together was a scorned Kentucky fan doing their part to see Calipari go down in flames.
Elite Eight:
My relationship with Duke is complicated for reasons I can’t fully unpack now. I used to be a huge fan, then I moved off Duke, now I’m back into Duke. It’s not important to get into all that right now. But it’s worth noting that in 1998, I was a huge Duke fan when my family was on a Spring Break vacation to Yosemite as Duke was playing Kentucky in the Elite Eight. We were listening to the game on the radio (at my request/demand) and Duke was up 17 with 9 minutes left when we lost the radio signal. That night, in the cafeteria at Yosemite National Park, I saw highlights of Kentucky’s epic comeback win. It completely ruined the vacation for me. The impact of this collapse was mitigated by the core of that Duke team making it the national title game the following year (and then losing a heartbreaker to UConn).
The 2005 Elite Eight delivered two all-time classics on the same day. In the first game, Louisville came back from down 20 against West Virginia and my key takeaway from that game was that West Virginia somehow surrendered a 20-point lead without playing poorly. I think the Mountaineers had a stretch where they hit like 15-of-17 three-pointers and they still somehow lost. It was just an incredible game.
Later that night, Illinois closed the game with a 20-5 run to steal a win against Arizona. This was more of an Arizona collapse but that was also an Illinois super team led by Deron Williams, Dee Brown, and Luther Head, who all scored directly off Arizona turnovers in the final minutes.
Final Four:
Duke has now been on both sides of epic comebacks/collapses in the Final Four. In 2001, Duke was down 22 in the first half against Maryland and ended up winning by double digits. Since the deficit ballooned in the first half, this was more of a comeback and served to illustrate how awesome that Duke five of Jason Williams, Shanie Battier, Mike Dunleavy, Carols Boozer, and Chris Duhon was. Probably the best starting five in Duke history. Meanwhile, Maryland bounced back and won the title the next year.
Championship:
In 2022, Kansas was down 16 to North Carolina before rallying for the comeback. This was the biggest comeback in the national championship but it’s worth remembering that North Carolina was an 8-seed who had already beaten Duke to spoil Coach K’s final home game, somehow pulled out an overtime win over top-seed Baylor despite blowing a 25-point lead (the rare team to recover from their own collapse mid-game), and then beat Duke a second time in the Final Four to completely spoil Coach K’s farewell tour. Carolina definitely had a team of destiny vibe, and it was surprising to see Kansas turn the tables on them in the final game, but any Carolina fan undoubtedly would take those two wins over Duke in exchange for a championship loss.
Having run through all the leading candidates, I feel pretty confident saying Duke’s collapse against Houston was the worst collapse in the history of the tournament. I think the Gonzaga collapse against UCLA continues to be more haunting because Gonzaga is still in search of their first national title. Duke has won five national titles over the last three and a half decades and could very well win five more in the next three and a half decades.
Yet this was arguably the best team in the country (they had the best odds going into the tournament) with the best player in the country losing in the Final Four in a game where they basically stopped scoring for the final ten minutes. That has never happened before. No other tournament collapse has combined such a high caliber team with a superstar player with incredibly high stakes with such a dreadful closing stretch combined with a truly chaotic final minute. In the 66th of a game of a tournament that has been pretty low on entertainment value, we finally got the Madness we were promised.